FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross gives his analysis on Colorado State University’s 2024 hurricane season outlook.
The first hurricane predictions for the eastern Pacific are out, and unlike the Atlantic, forecasters believe the basin will largely resemble activity seen during an average season.
Mexico’s national weather service expects 15-18 named storms to form, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes and 3-4 strengthening into major hurricanes.
During an average season, the eastern Pacific produces around 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
In 2023, an El Niño pattern helped the basin remain busier than average, with 17 named storms, ten hurricanes and eight major cyclones.
Two of the major hurricanes – Dora and Otis – were retired for their connections to mass devastation in Hawaii and southwestern Mexico.
The past three years have been quite busy across the eastern Pacific, with 2020 being the last season to see only an average number of cyclones form.
The status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO, plays a significant role in how active the basin is.
An El Niño pattern typically leads to enhanced cyclogenesis due to warm water and conducive atmospheric conditions.
A La Niña pattern, on the opposite end of the ENSO spectrum, results in cooler water and more hostile upper-level winds.
La Niña hurricane season impacts
(FOX Weather)
The ENSO status is expected to play a significant role in the development of cyclones in both the Pacific and Atlantic in 2024 and is a factor for why some forecasters are calling for only an average year for the ocean off the Mexican coastline.
The opposite is the case in the Atlantic, with many hurricane forecasters, including those at Colorado State University, expecting a hyperactive season.
The CSU research team is calling for 23 named storms, with 11 that are expected to become hurricanes and five that could reach major hurricane status, with winds of at least 115 mph.
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The Pacific season is slated to kick off on May 15, and the first tropical storm will earn the name of Aletta.
Much like the Atlantic basin, the eastern Pacific has rotating lists of 24 names that are used to identify cyclones with sustained winds of at least 39 mph.
Seasons in 2010 and 1977 produced the least amount of activity in the basin’s history, with only eight named storms.
The hurricane season in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific runs through November 30.
Pacific tropical cyclone names in 2024
