New Hampshire’s presidential primaries appeared to deliver a near-knockout blow for opponents of Donald Trump and Joe Biden Tuesday night, even as former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley – Trump’s sole remaining opponent – says the fight is not over.
And in many ways, the first-in-the-nation primary grabbed the same spotlight it always has, drawing in record numbers of voters, throngs of national and international media, and decisive results that will affect the races for both parties.
But as the signs come down and the campaigns pack up their headquarters, there are some lessons to be learned. Here are four takeaways from Dante Scala, professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the University of New Hampshire.
Haley supporters a key wildcard for general election
To Scala, one major factor ahead of the November general election in New Hampshire is what happens to the Haley voters if and when she drops out of the race – particularly the ones who are wealthier and independent-minded.
“With Trump, again, I do wonder about those upscale, suburban voters: They may come back to haunt him in the general election,” he said.
“They just can’t stomach Trump, but can they stomach Biden?” he said. “They have to make a choice.”
Exit polls indicate that Haley voters report doing well economically. That could suggest they have fewer qualms with Biden should Trump win the nomination – even if they lean Republican normally.
“I think it’ll be more difficult for Trump to appeal to them on the economy to make up for the fact that they dislike him,” Scala said.
Both Biden and Trump got the victories they needed
Trump is now the first non-incumbent Republican to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, and is in a position to maintain his momentum into the coming early states.
“Winning Iowa and New Hampshire is no small feat for someone who’s not the incumbent,” Scala said.
Biden – who did not campaign in the state and did not put his name on the ballot – also accomplished what he needed: His write-in campaign secured at least 60 percent. That doesn’t mean major margins, but it does mean that Biden avoids embarrassment.
The primary goal for Biden’s supporters, Scala argues, was to avoid an outcome where he did not win a majority of the ballots, or even was defeated by a candidate on the ballot due to low turnout. Lyndon Johnson in 1968 barely hit 50 percent of the vote after his supporters mounted a write-in campaign; that result, while technically a victory over Eugene McCarthy, helped convince Johnson not to run again for president at all.
“The write-in effort was fine,” Scala said. “Biden didn’t have a spectacular showing. But it wasn’t bad.”
Sununu’s influence hits its limits
As Haley swept the state in the primary’s final weeks, one prominent figure spent significant hours beside her: Gov. Chris Sununu.
Haley did well among moderate voters, a result that could be in part credited to Sununu. But Sununu has his own limitations. He’s tried to unite a Republican electorate that appears to be increasingly splintering, Scala said.
“There’s part of the Republican Party that’s really in the past,” Scala says. “And then the present and future of the party.”
The split lies between a more traditional faction of the Republican Party, and a newer brand of Republican that hews closely to Trump. In recent years, Republican nominees for U.S. House and Senate seats in New Hampshire, such as Karoline Leavitt, have reflected the newer brand. Leavitt, who lost a bid to defeat Rep. Chris Pappas in 2022, is now a spokesperson for the Trump campaign.
While Haley did better among New Hampshire conservatives than she did in Iowa, she performed the best with the older guard. And despite a bevy of town hall events and rallies, Sununu and Haley struggled to pull the two factions together.
Some of that was a referendum on Sununu. “I wonder with Sununu, despite his age, does he really reflect the future of the Republican Party?” Scala said. “Part of the party would like that. But not the majority.”
In the end, an endorsement can only go so far, Scala said.
He added: “Sununu was fine as governor, but a lot of voters weren’t about to take his advice about what to do for president.”
High turnout a selling point for the struggling primary
According to a New York Times analysis Wednesday, New Hampshire’s primary broke turnout records – similar to the projections from Secretary of State Dave Scanlan.
The extra participation wasn’t enough to help Haley topple Trump with undeclared voters. But New Hampshire’s continued high voter engagement could help bolster the state’s first-in-the-nation primary brand.
Many candidates made an effort to adhere to primary traditions. Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and other candidates, most of whom dropped out, had committed to restaurant visits, town halls, and house parties – a move that kept those traditions alive in the face of large campaign rallies earned by Trump.
Still, Scala says the campaigns still could all have done more, pointing to relatively sparse road signage and poll-side advocates. Many of the campaigns could have moved to build their campaign infrastructure earlier, Scala said. “Haley was here a lot but didn’t try to build an organization until late,” he said.
As the state vies to keep its primary at the top, those campaign decisions could matter, Scala said.
“I wonder whether campaigns will think about this past cycle and say, ‘Maybe we need to build the local grassroots (organizing) – do we really think we can do without that? Can we just rely on social media and TV and so on.’”
“You had an engaged electorate, I think,” he added. “The Trump people: They’re engaged. No question.”
